Ottawa Mortgage Blog
Your Trusted Ottawa Mortgage Experts
2026 Housing Market Outlook: What's Next for Buyers, Sellers and Investors?
February 17, 2026 | Posted by: Jamie Small - Ottawa Mortgage Broker
As we step into a new year in real estate, many buyers, sellers, and investors are asking the same question: What’s next for the housing market?
While no one can predict the future with certainty, experience provides perspective. After nearly two decades in the Canadian mortgage industry, I’ve seen how interest rates, employment trends, and consumer confidence shape the housing market.
One thing remains consistent. Markets move in cycles.
Conditions shift. Headlines change. But well-structured mortgage strategies and long-term homeownership continue to serve Canadians well.
Below are six trends that may influence the 2026 real estate landscape and what they could mean for you.
1. A Large Mortgage Renewal Wave
Many mortgages taken during the record-low rate environment of 2021 will renew in 2026. At that time, fixed rates were often under 2 percent. While rates have eased from their peak, renewal rates remain materially higher than pandemic-era lows.
What this means for homeowners:
• Monthly payments may increase at renewal
• Most households will adjust and manage the increase
• Some investors with tight cash flow may feel pressure
• We could see additional inventory in segments like condos and townhomes
Proactive renewal planning is critical. Reviewing your options early allows time to structure the mortgage to support your goals, not just your payment.
2. Move-Up Buyers Facing Equity Constraints
Some homeowners who purchased between 2020 and 2022 paid near-peak prices. With values having softened in certain segments, some may find they have less equity than expected.
In some cases, this may:
• Limit available down payment for a larger home
• Delay move-up plans
• Require creative structuring or revised expectations
Every situation is unique. An experienced mortgage professional can often uncover options borrowers may not realize they have.
3. A Cautious Return of Investors
Lower rates and softer prices are gradually bringing investors back to the market. However, today’s investors are more disciplined and selective.
Key dynamics at play:
• Not all property types offer strong cash flow
• Investors are focusing on fundamentals over speculation
• Improving affordability may support renewed activity
• A correction in financial markets could redirect capital back into real estate
Investors who approach 2026 with discipline and long-term thinking may find opportunity.
4. Increased First-Time Buyer Activity
Affordability has improved compared to recent years. After adjusting for inflation, home prices are closer to 2017 levels in many markets, and interest rates are the lowest they have been in nearly four years.
This combination is likely to bring more first-time buyers back into the market in 2026.
For those considering purchasing, preparation is key:
• Secure a pre-approval
• Understand your true budget
• Build a strategy before shopping
Timing the market perfectly is rarely realistic. Being prepared is far more powerful.
5. Selective Growth in Move-Up Buyers
While recent buyers may face equity challenges, long-time homeowners are often in a stronger position.
Those who purchased before the pandemic years typically:
• Benefited from significant appreciation
• Paid down more principal over time
• Built substantial equity
As prices moderate and borrowing costs ease, upgrading may become more attainable for this group. This could support demand in mid-range and higher-end housing segments.
6. Government Employment Uncertainty
Ottawa Focus
Here in Ottawa, federal government employment plays a central role in housing demand.
Recent job cut announcements have created understandable uncertainty. When job security is unclear, many buyers pause their plans.
Historically, clarity restores confidence. Once certainty returns, pent-up demand often follows.
Short-term softness driven by employment concerns may ultimately lay the groundwork for a stronger rebound.
Final Thoughts
2026 will likely be shaped by:
• A significant renewal cycle
• Gradual improvement in affordability
• Selective investor activity
• Local employment dynamics
Every market cycle creates both pressure points and opportunities.
If your mortgage is renewing this year, or if you are considering buying, refinancing, or restructuring, early conversation and thoughtful planning make all the difference. I am always available for a no-pressure discussion about your goals and how to structure your mortgage to support them.
For more guidance, contact me, Jamie Small your Ottawa, Ontario Mortgage Broker today!